Updated: Friday, October 28, 2016 07:28 AM
The rainfall we have seen in Magalia since Thursday morning has been light, with only 0.65" since it started. A weak area of low pressure and its associated cold front should come ashore this morning over Central California. This low is merging with some moisture out of the subtropics from Tropical Storm Seymour, but most of Seymour's moisture appears to be staying south of us. The next weather system is slated for Sunday, and looks to be stronger and colder.
This morning, this location has only seen 0.18" of rain since midnight. Rainfall rates have been light, with a peak rate of only 0.08"/hr. at 4:30 am. Temperatures are running within less than 1° of 24 hours ago. The low this morning has been 52°. Winds have been still all of this early morning, remaining less than 1 mph as of just before sunrise. Snow levels have been running above 8000'.
Today should see rain during the morning hours, becoming showery late morning into tonight as the low pressure area ejects to our east. There is a 95% chance of rain this morning, dropping back to a 65% chance late morning into late afternoon. Odds continue to decrease to a 45% chance by late tonight into early Saturday morning. The afternoon high temperature is forecast to reach about 55°, and the low tonight near 53°. Winds should be light to non-existent this morning, becoming south to southeast this afternoon up to 8 mph.
Saturday could see a continued chance of rain showers in Magalia as we will be under a moist southwest flow, but precipitation amounts are expected to be even lighter than what we've seen today. There's a 45% chance of rainfall Saturday morning, increasing to a 65% chance by sunrise and continuing into the late afternoon. Those odds rise to a 75% chance by late Saturday night into early Sunday as the next low pressure and associated cold front approaches the West Coast. With the colder air not reaching our area until Sunday, Saturday should see a high temperature about the same as today's readings. The low Saturday night may be a few degrees colder than tonight, dropping down to about 51°. Southerly winds should pick up to as high as 10 mph early Saturday morning, but drop back to about 8 mph for most of the day and Saturday night.
Sunday should see the next storm make an impact on Northern California for most of the day. This weather system is emanating out of the Gulf of Alaska, so it will be colder than what we've seen lately. The afternoon high on Sunday is predicted to only reach about 51°, and the low Sunday night near 46°. Rain and snow will likely become heavy over Northern California by Sunday afternoon as the main frontal band passes through the region. The chance of rain in Magalia by Sunday afternoon is 100%. Snow levels will lower to near 6000' on Sunday, and travel over the mountain passes may be impacted. If you need to drive over the mountains on Sunday, make sure you have a set of snow chains with you if you're not driving a 4-wheel drive vehicle. There is also a chance of some thunderstorm activity on Sunday as cold and unstable air filters into the region, especially if the sun can peek through the clouds and warm the lower atmosphere.
Monday into Tuesday looks as though a chance of precipitation will remain over the area, but not nearly as strong as Sunday's system. There is a 25% chance of rain Halloween night. Wednesday into Friday currently looks to be dry for the most part. A weak cold front may bring a 15% chance of precipitation Wednesday afternoon, but looks like it may break up over the coastal range and be weakened before reaching this area. There's a very slight chance of showers on Friday. Another series of weather systems could effect us by next weekend and into the following workweek, if the current GFS forecast model comes true. Have a great TGIF. Bob